Take last year’s standings. Copy them onto a blank sheet of paper.

That’s generally the way the MIAA preseason coaches poll works — other than moving Missouri Western to fifth no matter how high the Griffons finished the previous season.

Of course, it’s usually a pretty effective method (other than the Griffons’ predilection for confounding expectations). Alternating championship predictions between Pittsburg State and Northwest Missouri State has been a pretty safe bet the past decade.

But several factors complicate that this year. First, perennial playoff contender Nebraska-Omaha joins the league. Second, Northwest lost an unusually large number of stars. Third, a couple of upstarts appear ready to make their charge.

That all combines to create a wider race for the title than the conference has seen recently.

Any of these four teams could emerge from the pack, win the conference and surge on to the Division II championship game: Nebraska-Omaha, Western, Pittsburg and Northwest.

That said, here’s where I’d rank those top four teams:

No. 4 Pittsburg State

Reason to believe: The Gorillas (8-3 in 2007) boast the best backfield tandem in the conference. Quarterback Mark Smith and tailback Caleb Farabi led a Pittsburg State offense that averaged 37.4 points and 454.2 yards last year.

Smith does it all. He rushed for 12 touchdowns in 2007; he threw 12 touchdown passes; he led the MIAA last year in passing efficiency (158.2 rating).

Farabi rushed for 1,370 yards on 247 carries. He scored 20 touchdowns.

Scoring points won’t be a problem.

Trouble in paradise: Two years ago, the Pittsburg State defense was an embarrassment to the school’s tradition. Last year, it was better. But they still gave up 28 or more points in five games (more than 30 in four games). The Gorillas are going to have to be much better defensively to run the MIAA’s gauntlet.

Mental toughness and killer instinct also seemed to be missing the past two years. Western beat them in Carnie Smith Stadium on a tie-breaking touchdown pass with just 22 seconds left in the game. Northwest beat them at Arrowhead Stadium when the Gorillas missed what should have been a game-winning, chip-shot field goal to end regulation and then sat back as Xavier Omon scored a 1-yard touchdown dive on fourth-and-goal in overtime.

Finally, the Gorillas played themselves out of playoff contention when they lost at Washburn in the season’s next-to-last game by giving away three turnovers in their last three drives.

No. 3 Northwest

Reason to believe: The Bearcats have been to three straight Division II national championship games — three close losses — and have used that exposure to build the MIAA’s most athletic and quickest overall roster. They’ll be fast, they’ll be tough and they’ll be disciplined every game.

They return eight offensive starters and five on defense, an experienced group that went undefeated in the MIAA the past two years. That’s especially true of the offensive line with four out of five returning, including two 300-pound All-Americans (left tackle Reid Kirby and right guard Jeremy Davis).

Trouble in paradise: MIAA offensive player of the year Xavier Omon is trying to make the Buffalo Bills’ roster. MIAA defensive player of the year Jared Erspamer is a graduate assistant with the Bearcats — in fact, the Bearcats’ top five linebackers all are gone. The team also lost defensive linemen Dallas Flynn and Terry Bilbro and tight end Mike Peterson (all three were first-team all-MIAA).

It’s not just that the Bearcats lost several outstanding players. They lost their playmakers, the couple of individuals who could take over a team game and near single-handedly dominate. Omon built a resume that is one of the best in Division II over the past couple of decades. “We probably won’t see another one like him for a long, long time,” said Northwest coach Mel Tjeerdsma, “if ever.” Erspamer was the Bearcats’ equivalent to Omon on the defensive side.

With the way the Bearcats recruit, it’s likely that they have a few difference-makers ready to step up. But the toughest part of the schedule is the first half: four out of their first six are against playoff-contending teams. By the time the new stars emerge, the conference title race might be out of reach.

No. 2 Nebraska-Omaha

Reason to believe: Quarterback Zach Miller. He’s 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds. And, in Tjeerdsma’s words, he’s just a winner. Last year, he completed 115 of 190 passes for 1,553 yards and 10 touchdowns, and he rushed for another 822 yards and 10 scores.

The Mavericks also play a tough, physical, smashmouth brand of football on offense and defense. Their defense allowed just 97 yards rushing per game last year. They’ve used that identity to win four straight North Central Conference titles and make four straight D-II playoff berths.

Trouble in paradise: The NCC the past few years doesn’t much compare to the MIAA, and coach Pat Berhns admits that his team won’t know the impact of the MIAA’s weekly grind until they face it.

“There’s no question to me that the MIAA is the best conference in Division II,” Berhns said. “The competition level is much higher.”

Plus, the Mavericks lost three starters on their offensive line, and one of their two returners — center Aaron Bierman — is coming off a serious ACL injury. That’s a big question for a team that likes to win in the trenches.

No. 1 Missouri Western

Reason to believe: Back to playmakers — the Griffons have them. Quarterback Drew Newhart was the MIAA Freshman of the Year last year. He threw for more than 2,000 yards and 21 touchdowns.

Receiver Cedric Houston proved a capacity to break big plays in big moments. Running back Zach Walker gets to run behind a powerful offensive line that features right guard Roger Allen, a legitimate NFL prospect who has to be one of the MIAA’s top five talents.

Defensive end Soane Etu scored 9.5 sacks and 18 tackles for a loss last year, and Bradley Davidson nearly as effective at the other end with four sacks and an interception. Combined with speed in the secondary, the Griffons’ defense should create turnovers and score some points on their own.

Trouble in paradise: Western’s 2007 defense didn’t live up to the standard set by the Griffons under coach Jerry Partridge during the past decade. They were seventh in the league in scoring defense (24.5 points a game) and seventh in total defense (384.5 yards a game). And they’ve got to replace all three starters at linebacker from that unit.

But the bigger question is their ability to make the most of their potential. Can they seal the deal?

Last year, they had a spot in the playoffs all but wrapped up. All they needed to do was beat a mediocre-at-best Truman State team in the last game of the regular season. Instead, they squandered a 14-0 advantage and let the postseason slip away.

Is this team more mature? Does it have the toughness to pair with its explosiveness? If so, then this group has the potential to get the Griffons back into the Division II playoffs and score the school’s first playoff victory.